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On this date in 2000, the NBA launched NBA.com/UK to cater to basketball fans in the United Kingdom. It provided local listings for games and even set up special player chats and “mailboxes” for UK NBA fans. Twenty-six years later, we might have NBA Europe teams in the United Kingdom. As Winston Churchill used to say, “The last domino can’t fall until the first one does.” Actually, he never said that.
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Tanking fixes?
The NBA proposes changes to draft lottery
Last week, The Athletic reported on the NBA’s potential solutions to stop tanking. Commissioner Adam Silver could punish tanking teams by moving draft picks to the end of the lottery or the end of the first round. Or he could even take them away completely. He could also push fines into the millions for repeat tanking offenders.
Punishments will only go so far, though. Fixing the system at hand is the biggest deterrent to tanking. There are three potential fixes to the draft lottery on the table, and the NBA’s Board of Governors will hold a special vote at some point in May to land on a plan. Let’s review the three proposals and figure out what could work.
Plan 1: Multiple lotteries in one lottery
- Lottery extends to include four Play-In Tournament losers — 18 total teams instead of 14.
- First lottery for the top five picks, with the worst five teams all having the same odds.
- Second lottery for picks 6-18. If a bottom-five team misses out on the first five picks, it would pick no worse than 10th.
What’s good about this plan? Extending the lottery to include the teams that lost in the Play-In Tournament should quell any slippery slope scenarios in which people believe teams will drop out of the Play-In for better lottery odds. Other than that, this plan is a mess.
What’s bad about this plan? Almost everything. The five worst teams get the best lottery odds. So we’ve moved from teams tanking for the top three spots to teams tanking for the top five spots? How is that better? Because there is a convoluted, overly complicated second lottery? You put another lottery inside the lottery? Is this “Pimp My Ride” or something? This is dumb.
How much of a fix is this? This is a flat-out 0/10. It wouldn’t curb tanking at all.
Plan 2: Win floor and two-year aggregation
- Lottery extends through losers of the first round of the playoffs — 22 total teams.
- Lottery odds ranked by records over the last two seasons.
- Mandatory minimum for wins each season. If it’s 20 and you win 18, it counts as winning 20.
What’s good about this plan? On a certain level, this would curb extreme tanking, in theory. If the win floor is 20, there is no reason for teams to aim for anything less. And including the teams that lost in the Play-In and the first round of the playoffs shows everybody that it can’t hurt to try to be somewhat good.
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What’s bad about this plan? This is mostly dependent on the win floor. Twenty wins is too low. In this extreme tanking season, only four teams are in danger of not getting to 20 wins. Since 2013-14, 20 teams have finished under 20 wins (remember: two pandemic-shortened seasons are in there). But 52 teams since 2013-14 finished under 25 wins. Having a two-year aggregate for record might lead to two years of tanking instead of one.
How much of a fix is this? 6/10 if the league gets the win floor right.
Plan 3: Flatten odds for bottom 10
- Lottery extends to include four Play-In Tournament losers — 18 total teams.
- Bottom-10 teams have the same odds (8 percent).
- Teams 11 through 18 would have same odds (2.5 percent).
What’s good about this plan? Having the same odds (and just 8 percent) for the bottom 10 teams in the league is nearly perfect. This might mean we only have a couple of weeks of tanking, rather than months of it. And the odds are low enough that we shouldn’t have teams trying to get out of the Play-In or playoffs.
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What’s bad about this plan? I really can’t think of anything. This feels like the committee nailed it. Unless you believe teams will try to avoid the playoffs to have a 2.5 percent chance of winning the lottery.
How much of a fix is this? 9/10. This, plus tanking penalties, feels nearly flawless.
The last 24
🐜 He’s back? The Wolves have been without Anthony Edwards for two weeks. He’s probably back tonight.
🪣 Historic run. The Raptors made history against the Magic yesterday. They went on a 31-0 run.
✉️ Dear baseball. The Blue Jays manager found a letter months after losing the World Series. It was from Steve Kerr.
4️⃣ MVP debate. It looks like a four-man race for the title of best player in the NBA. Here’s how our experts view the fab four.
☘️ He’s improving. Jayson Tatum is getting better and better since his return. He beat the Hornets with a season-high 32 points.
Stream the NBA on Fubo (try it for free!) and catch out-of-market games on League Pass.
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Be-Deviled
Duke had an all-time choke job
If you thought Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and company giving up a 9-0 run in the final 65 seconds in the Final Four last year against Houston was bad, this year’s Duke team said, “Hold my Solo cup.” The No. 1 seed Blue Devils lost to UConn in the most painful way in yesterday’s Elite Eight.
The Huskies were down 10 with 6:47 left, in a game in which they shot just 5-of-23 from deep. But they clawed their way back to get within two points with 10 seconds left.
All Duke had to do was run a little clock, get fouled, knock down a free throw or two and hold strong. Instead, the opposite happened. While trying to play “Keep Away” and run as much time as possible, UConn swarmed Cayden Boozer just before half court. He had two teammates left unguarded and just had to either get fouled or get the ball over the closing trap.
Silas Demary Jr. tipped the ball, and Braylon Mullins picked it up. That’s when destiny decided Duke was not welcome in Indianapolis for the Final Four this weekend. Mullins passed to Alex Karaban, because Mullins said he wanted to get it to someone who had knocked down a 3 already. Mullins was 0-of-4. But Karaban swung it right back to Mullins at … 40 feet?
Feet set, jumper wet. He knocked it down with 0.4 seconds left. Duke was absolutely crushed for the second straight year. It’s an all-time shot. It’s an all-time choke job. And now we have a Final Four set with UConn taking on Illinois and Michigan facing Arizona on Saturday. Basketball!
NBA stock report
Pistons are just fine without Cade
Every Monday, we walk right into the heart of NBA trends. We stand around in the middle of the floor, look up at the big screens with lots of numbers in green or red fonts and then assess whether teams are headed up or down. Let’s dive into the NBA Stock Market:
📈 Pistons (54-20). As soon as we heard Cade Cunningham was out with a collapsed lung, it was fair to wonder if the Pistons might be in danger of giving up their lead in the Eastern Conference. Worry no longer! Counting the game Cunningham got hurt (he only played five minutes), the Pistons are 6-1 since the injury. Jalen Duren has stepped up massively, averaging 24.1 points on 66.7 percent from the field and 86.9 percent from the line, along with 10.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists.
📉 Rockets (45-29). Houston has been shockingly horrible in the clutch. The Rockets blew a 13-point overtime lead to the Timberwolves last week and lost by giving up a 15-0 run. They became the first team in the last 29 years (when play-by-play data became available) to lose a game after leading by 10 or more in overtime. Teams were 180-0 in those games. Houston is 4-9 in games decided by three points or less. It’s 21st in clutch offense and 25th in clutch defense. Only the Trail Blazers turn the ball over more in the clutch.
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📈 Nuggets (48-28). That’s six wins in a row for Denver, which is also 9-2 in its last 11 games. The healthier version of this team looks the way we expected it to look coming into the season. Jamal Murray has been torching opposing defenses, and Nikola Jokić is dropping dimes left and right. The Nuggets are making well over 40 percent of their 3-pointers during these 11 games. Denver might be hitting its stride at the right time.
📉 Nets (18-57). Brooklyn snapped a 10-game losing streak on Sunday. But the Nets had five consecutive games scoring fewer than 100 points, and seven of the 10 games didn’t see them hit triple digits. Somehow, the Nets managed to fly way under their already subterraneanly low expectations. They have a 102.0 offensive rating during this stretch. The second-worst during this time is Milwaukee at 108.7. You never see a gulf like that between Nos. 29 and 30.
📈 Clippers (39-36). LA has won five straight and 33 of its last 48 games. During this streak, Kawhi Leonard is putting up 27.4 points on nearly 50 percent from the field in fewer than 30 minutes per game. Darius Garland’s play has been super encouraging. He looks healthy from that toe issue, and he’s shooting the lights out. He’s been averaging 25.0 points with 58.7/58.1/92.3 shooting splits. That’s a 77.4 percent true shooting.
(Check out the full NBA standings here, and read the extended version of the NBA Stock Report every Monday in my NBA Rewind.)