Five burning NBA Draft questions, including who’ll go No. 1 and the guard puzzle

Welcome to NBA Draft Week 2026. The draft is earlier in the week than normal, coming on Tuesday this year. But the madness should remain the same, with a loaded crop of talent entering the league.

Yet, a significant number of questions remain, including even something as basic as who will be the No. 1 pick.

I dove deep into that, and the four other biggest questions that we’re looking to find out as we enter a momentous week that will change the trajectories of multiple franchises league-wide.

Who will the Washington Wizards take at No. 1?

The Wizards have quickly turned into one of the most interesting teams in the NBA over the last six months, acquiring both Trae Young and Anthony Davis to accentuate a strong young core that includes Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson and Will Riley. Now, they have hit the jackpot and get to select No. 1 in what is seen as a strong draft.

The Wizards seem to have narrowed their choice down to BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson. Dybantsa is a dynamic 6-foot-9 wing who creates the most valuable shots on an NBA court — attempts at the rim and free throws — at a prodigious rate for a 19-year-old. He’s improving as a passer and playmaker for his teammates but isn’t necessarily a natural there. Defensively, he has all the tools to be terrific, but he seems to struggle making quick decisions on that end. If you were making me choose a favorite right now, I think he would be the leader in the clubhouse.

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Overall 1 Wing 1

AJ Dybantsa BYU

Elite tools for a wing; could easily become a top-10 NBA player.

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But sources have maintained to The Athletic throughout the process that the Wizards have done a large amount of due diligence into Peterson, meeting with him multiple times. Peterson had a strange year at Kansas, missing time and the second halves of games because of cramping issues and an early-season hamstring injury. The team situation at Kansas was also not ideal, as he had no spacing or shooting around him. But many scouts and executives believe him to be the most complete player offensively in the class based on his high school tape, where he showcased the ability to play with the ball in his hands and make high-level decisions out of ball screens. And yet, scouts still worry about whether he will pressure the paint enough to be a true No. 1 option, first-team All-NBA-style guard.

Overall 3 Guard 1

Darryn Peterson Kansas

An elite shooter with All-NBA scoring guard upside, despite his strange Kansas year.

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The key for the Wizards is that they cannot go wrong with either player. This is a home-run situation for what will undoubtedly be one of the most improved teams in the NBA next season. Really, it’s just a matter of preference. And while I have Dybantsa at No. 1 and Peterson at No. 3 on my personal board, I think the race between the top three players in this year’s class — throwing Duke’s Cameron Boozer into the equation as well — is closer from an evaluation perspective than any draft I’ve covered in more than a decade of doing this job. The basketball world is split on who the best prospect is, so it should come as no surprise that there would be multiple discussions and opinions regarding the choice in Washington’s front office.

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What You Should Read Next

The Wizards’ NBA lottery gift? Taking AJ Dybantsa with the No. 1 pick

Dybantsa has too much potential to become the kind of star the Wizards haven’t had around here since Chris Webber’s brief star turn.

What will the Utah Jazz do at No. 2?

Like the Wizards, the Jazz have also become very interesting. Following their trade for Jaren Jackson Jr. at the deadline, Utah is now loaded with potential frontcourt pieces in Jackson, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler. On top of that, their No. 5 pick from last season was Ace Bailey, whose best role would seem to be at the nominal three or four spots, even if coach Will Hardy’s offensive scheme is as positionless as any you’ll find in the league. Under his tutelage and scheme, the Jazz should have one of the NBA’s best offenses. However, what’s so exciting about this team is that it’s collected an immense number of massive, skilled humans who can score while providing size on the defensive end, after years of struggling on that side of the court.

The one area that seems deficient is the ability to handle the ball and make passing reads. Jackson, Markkanen and Bailey lack those skill sets for the roles they play. Kessler is a center whose calling card is rim running and shot-blocking. He’s also a restricted free agent, although sources remain steadfast in the belief that the most likely outcome is that he’ll be back in Utah next season. So that should make this decision fairly easy for the Jazz, right? Take the best perimeter player who falls to them on draft night. And yet, it’s not. Sources have indicated that Dybantsa, Peterson and Boozer are on the table as potential options.

Realistically, the Jazz need to decide if they think they’re good enough as presently constructed to contend by taking a player who fits best or if they need to simply take the best player available. Utah has been connected heavily with Dybantsa, who played at Utah Prep in high school and then at BYU. Jazz owner Ryan Smith is a significant donor to BYU and met with Dybantsa’s father twice before his commitment to the Cougars, per ESPN. The franchise also has connections to Boozer, whose father, Carlos, is a former NBA All-Star who currently works in the team’s front office. Yet sources have told The Athletic that these connections will play no role in the decision at No. 2.

Why AJ Dybansta is the no. 1 prospect in this year’s NBA Draft

Sam Vecenie

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Another thing that will not play a role in the choice: the fact that Peterson does not plan to meet with the Jazz ahead of the draft. The Jazz have no issue selecting players who don’t come to meet with them, just as they did last season when they took Bailey at No. 5. The organization feels confident in its ability to retain talent, as has been shown by extensions signed in recent years by star players like Markkanen, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley.

I believe the margin between Dybantsa, Boozer and Peterson is razor-thin enough that I would prioritize selecting the player who best fits the core. To me, that is whoever falls to No. 2 between Peterson or Dybantsa. If Utah were to select Boozer, I believe that it would eventually require a trade to reshuffle the roster and assets. I don’t believe that Kessler, Boozer, Markkanen, Bailey and Jackson would be able to play effectively together on the same roster while also getting the minutes those players have all richly earned. Maybe they’re willing to explore a trade, but the Jazz have gone to great lengths to acquire talent in recent years.

Overall 2 Forward 1

Cameron Boozer Duke

Versatile, skilled forward with a brilliant offensive mind; needs to find a role on defense.

Read full profile ›

How will all the guards get sorted out?

Many executives across the league say the uncertainty of this draft begins at No. 5. In some order, I feel quite confident that Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson will go in the top four. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess, as the next tier of talent features a significant number of guards — including Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr., Illinois’ Keaton Wagler, Houston’s Kingston Flemings, Arizona’s Brayden Burries and Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr.

How Keaton Wagler came from out of nowhere to become a top NBA prospect

Sam Vecenie

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The Clippers hold the cards at No. 5 after acquiring the pick in the Ivica Zubac deal at the deadline. They have done their due diligence on all the guards, with Wagler and Brown emerging as the most likely choices if they go that direction. However, they’ve also explored trade-down scenarios. Sources also note that they don’t see the Clippers wanting to trade out of the draft entirely, as they’ve done a significant amount of legwork on players like Burries, Michigan center Aday Mara and others.

At No. 6, the Brooklyn Nets have the league somewhat baffled by what they’re planning — a fact they assuredly enjoy — although Brown remains the player whose name I get most consistently associated with them. They’re another team that has explored potential trade-down scenarios, too, meaning this part of the draft is highly unsettled.

Overall 10 Guard 6

Mikel Brown Jr. Louisville

A home-run hitter of a lead guard who could stand to settle for singles at times.

Read full profile ›

The Sacramento Kings have No. 7 and are certainly in the market for a guard, with sources connecting Acuff’s name heavily to the organization throughout the process. However, the Kings are unlikely to spend significant draft capital to trade up to assure themselves of their top-rated guard. They seem comfortable with the prospects who will be available at No. 7.

Overall 5 Guard 2

Darius Acuff Jr. Arkansas

The most polished teenage guard to enter the league in years; defense is the big question.

Read full profile ›

The Atlanta Hawks at No. 8 are another team that could be in the trade market, with sources indicating that they’ve at least looked into both trade-up and trade-down options. But they could also be in the market for a guard. More on them later. The Dallas Mavericks at No. 9 and the Milwaukee Bucks at No. 10 have also done a significant level of due diligence into the guards.

All the teams noted here have different evaluations on these players, making it complicated to know in what order they will be picked. The potential for trades in this range throws another wrench into the proceedings. If you want some potential for draft-day madness, the No. 5 through No. 10 range is where you should look.

When do the runs on bigs start?

Even though all the teams in the top 10 are doing their work on the guards and could theoretically use an answer at that position, sources have also said to expect a lottery run on the top big men in this draft. Those players include Michigan’s Mara and Morez Johnson Jr., as well as Washington center Hannes Steinbach.

Johnson’s stock has risen in recent days, with teams falling in love with how he approaches the game, his mentality and motor and his professionalism. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also a legitimate switch defender on the perimeter who can slide his feet and guard almost anybody, in addition to being a fearless, physical presence on the interior. Teams and players who have been in workouts have been highly impressed by Johnson. He feels like a significant potential target for teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Charlotte Hornets or Chicago Bulls, who have explored trading up from their picks in the No. 12 to No. 15 range.

Overall 11 Big 1

Morez Johnson Jr. Michigan

A versatile frontcourt defender who can roam the perimeter and destroy the glass.

Read full profile ›

However, don’t sleep on Mara or Steinbach, the two European bigs who played in the Big Ten this year. Sources indicate that both of those players are likely to hear their name called somewhere in the back half of the lottery, with Steinbach’s hands and natural movement ability at 250 pounds standing out, while Mara’s rim protection and feel for the game have earned fans across the league.

Overall 12 Big 2

Hannes Steinbach Washington

Starting-caliber center with terrific hands, frame and footwork who will crash the glass.

Read full profile ›

It feels like this run could start anytime from No. 8 to No. 12, but don’t expect that trio of bigs to stick on the board for long. And don’t be surprised if one of them interrupts the run on guards.

There is also expected to be a late run on bigs in the first round, with players like St. John’s’ Zuby Ejiofor, UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr., North Carolina’s Henri Veesaar and Kentucky’s Jayden Quaintance seen as options in the 20s. Quaintance is the most interesting name there, a talented defensive big who teams see as a lottery-level talent. However, the current expectation from team sources is that he will be available in the 20s because of a right ACL tear that he suffered in February 2025 that is still causing swelling issues. He’ll be one of the significant storylines of the back half of the first round.

Overall 22 Big 4

Jayden Quaintance Kentucky

Potential All-Defense big with limited offensive skill; is he healthy?

Read full profile ›

What does the trade market look like?

While the league’s trade market seems to be in a period of stasis as teams wait to see what the Milwaukee Bucks do with Giannis Antetokounmpo, I would expect to see some movement here over the next 36 hours. Beyond the Antetokounmpo market, which The Athletic’s Sam Amick has covered thoroughly, there are several teams trying to sort through options.

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What You Should Read Next

What I’m hearing about Giannis Antetokounmpo, other NBA players as draft nears

Will the Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo before the NBA Draft on Tuesday?

As mentioned above, the Hawks seem to be the most active team in the league and have explored several different options, from trades up from No. 8, trades down from No. 8 and trades for veterans. They’re open to a lot to set their roster up for long-term success, given their current flexibility and high draft pick. They also own pick No. 23. The Clippers have at least explored trade-downs, and I wonder if there would be some synergy here if the Hawks wanted to move up for a player like Wagler.

The Detroit Pistons are also quite active. As Amick wrote late last week, Isaiah Stewart seems to be available and could be moved by the draft. The Pistons seem to be in the market for a higher-upside creator to take some pressure off Cade Cunningham and are open to moving some veterans and/or picks to either create cap space or acquire that player via the trade market.

The Thunder seem to be having discussions on multiple fronts, from trade-ups to trade-downs to even trade-outs involving pick No. 17 to acquire future draft capital. With the roster about to get wildly expensive as Chet Holmgren’s and Jalen Williams’ extensions kick in, Oklahoma City is also cutting costs around the periphery of its roster. The Thunder are trading Aaron Wiggins to the Hawks for two second-round picks, and I would expect he’s not the last player to move.

I’ve heard rumors of the Golden State Warriors moving up or down in the draft, depending on how the board shakes out. Chicago and Memphis are seen as threats to move up from Nos. 15 and 16. Teams such as the Minnesota Timberwolves (who had a workout with expected top-20 pick Labaron Philon Jr. despite owning pick No. 28, raising eyebrows league-wide) and the Boston Celtics have looked into deals to move up the board.

Because so many trade conversations occur this time of year between teams just sorting through their options, it’s always thought that we’ll see a lot of trades during the draft. Many of those conversations end up being benign. But this year, I believe there really are several teams that are incentivized to trade up, mixed with teams motivated to move down. The salary-cap aprons have also caused some teams to get too expensive, so several organizations are looking to offload talented players to either create space or improve their draft standing.

I’m betting that we end up seeing a bunch of deals on draft night. Whether we get the big one with Giannis remains to be seen, but the draft should feature a fun number of moves.

Five burning NBA Draft questions, including who’ll go No. 1 and the guard puzzle

Who will the Washington Wizards take at No. 1?

What will the Utah Jazz do at No. 2?

How will all the guards get sorted out?

When do the runs on bigs start?

What does the trade market look like?

Analyse

2026-06-23 12:43:01